📈 Citigroup Bets on Bitcoin: 135K by End of 2025

Wall Street’s top floor is eyeing crypto’s penthouse — with a bull case pushing 199K

📌 Quick Stats

• 🏦 Citigroup Forecast: 135K BTC (base), 199K (bull), 64K (bear)
• 💼 Catalyst: Spot Bitcoin ETFs, especially BlackRock’s IBIT (100B AUM)
• 🔁 ETF Flow Impact: Over 40% of BTC price action in 2024 driven by ETF trades
• 📊 Adoption Signal: Bitcoin now seen as a strategic asset class, not speculation
• 🧠 Outlook Driver: TradFi liquidity > on-chain metrics

🧠 Institutional Inflows Are the New Alpha

Forget mining cycles and halving hype—Citigroup says Bitcoin’s price is now ruled by Wall Street, not maxis.

In its latest market report, the banking behemoth claims ETF flows account for over 40% of BTC’s 2024 price movement. Translation? The suits are calling the shots.

And BlackRock’s IBIT—already pushing 100B AUM—is the poster child of this shift. As TradFi pours in, BTC is behaving less like a meme and more like macro infrastructure.

“ETF buying and selling pressures have introduced greater volatility but also increased liquidity.” — Citigroup

This is Bitcoin 2.0: no longer just gold 2.0, but a full-blown Wall Street asset class.

💰 199K or Bust? The Three Scenarios

Citigroup lays out three possible futures for Bitcoin — and they all ride on ETF velocity:

• 🐂 Bull Case: If spot ETF demand accelerates past 15B, BTC could flirt with 199,000
• 📈 Base Case: A solid, steady flow pushes price toward 135,000
• 🐻 Bear Case: Regulatory risk + macro shocks = a drop back to 64,000

It’s a capital game now. Not about blocks, about billions.

🌍 Wall Street Is Here—and It’s Changing the Game

Crypto’s retail phase built the foundation. Now ETFs are building the towers.

The report highlights how institutional products like IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC are absorbing capital like black holes. Bitcoin is being re-framed as portfolio ballast, not just a speculation rocket.

What’s changing?

• BTC is becoming predictable enough for pension funds
• Liquidity’s up, volatility’s down (sort of)
• TradFi is no longer knocking — it’s inside

🔮 The Bigger Picture: A New BTC Narrative

Bitcoin is no longer just code, culture, or crypto. It’s macro thesis material.

If this trend holds, Citigroup’s forecast implies BTC may join gold, bonds, and blue-chip equities as a core component of diversified wealth — with ETF demand setting the tempo.

But the risks haven’t vanished:

• 🧯 Regulation remains a wildcard
• 🌪️ Macroeconomic shocks can slam inflows
• 👀 And Wall Street, famously, loves an exit too

So while the rocket is fueled, there are still turbulence warnings ahead.

TL;DR

Citigroup just dropped a bold BTC forecast: 135K by end of 2025, with a bull case near 199K—all depending on institutional ETF demand. The future of Bitcoin price action? Less about crypto Twitter, more about TradFi cashflow. If ETFs remain hot, BTC could become Wall Street’s favorite digital reserve.