*� The Credit Kick Drum: Arthur Hayes Says Wartime Fascism Will Send Bitcoin to 250K

Fiat’s new beat is militarized, state-backed, and crypto-fueled. Can you keep up with the rhythm?

📌 Quick Stats

• 📈 BTC Target: 250,000
• 🧠 Macro View: U.S. is pivoting to industrial “wartime fascism”
• 🔄 Mechanism: Credit creation fuels asset bubbles → crypto becomes inflation valve
• 💸 ETH Target: 10,000
• 🔧 Core Narrative: Government-guaranteed capitalism = bullish for crypto

🥁 Dancing to the Rhythm of Credit

Arthur Hayes opens with a simple thesis: Markets move to the beat of credit.

Just like dancers need rhythm, traders must follow the tempo of fiat credit expansion. Right now? That beat is thumping. And it’s getting louder.

“A price chart is a wave of human emotion to which our portfolios dance.”

The U.S. government, Hayes argues, is moving toward a Chinese-style fascist economy — not ideologically, but structurally. Think:

• ✅ State-backed industrial policy
• ✅ Guaranteed corporate profits
• ✅ Endless debt issuance
• ✅ Regulatory incentives favoring crypto
• ✅ Stablecoins recycling yield into U.S. Treasuries

🏗️ Fascism = Bullish for Bitcoin?

To compete on the global stage, the U.S. needs to rebuild its military-industrial base — fast.

But private capital won’t do it alone. So the state steps in with guarantees, mandates, and direct investment.

🧪 Case in point: The Pentagon-backed MP Materials deal, where rare earth production is subsidized and guaranteed above China’s price floor.

“This is how credit gets created: guaranteed profits = willing banks = new facilities = more jobs = more inflation.”

Hayes calls it fascism. Wall Street calls it investment-grade.

🧨 Blow the Bubble — Just Not in Rent or Wheat

Wars are inflationary. But the government doesn’t want voters angry over grocery prices or rent spikes.

So it needs a financial release valve. Enter: crypto.

Hayes’ logic:

• 🎯 Young, diverse, and underbanked Americans hold crypto
• 🧓 401(k)s now greenlit for digital assets
• 🧾 Trump may cut crypto capital gains
• 💵 Stablecoins fund deficits by buying Treasuries

“Crypto pumps, voters are happy, and the U.S. debt is financed by Tether.”

🌎 War & Geopolitics? Just Background Noise

What about Gaza, Ukraine, China tariffs?

Hayes shrugs. In his view:

• 🇨🇳 China won’t escalate — it needs U.S. dollars
• 🧲 Mutual dependence will keep the Cold War cold
• 💳 The only thing that matters is the credit cycle

“The kick drum is thumping. The credit is pumping. Why are you not fully invested in crypto?”

📊 What to Buy: ETH, DeFi, and ERC-20s

Hayes’ playbook isn’t subtle:

• 🦄 ETH will lead the next narrative rotation
• 🧠 Institutions love Ethereum as “programmable money”
• 💥 Stack up on DeFi names and ERC-20 tokens — even “shitcoins”
• 🧪 His new fund, Maelstrom, is going all-in on Ethereum-native assets

“This ain’t financial advice. But it’s exactly what I’m doing.”

🧠 Bigger Picture: The Fiat System Needs Crypto

Crypto isn’t just surviving — it’s becoming necessary infrastructure for a fiat system that needs bubbles, inflation release valves, and financial rails to fund debt and war.

In Hayes’ view:

• 🏦 The U.S. is creating artificial demand through credit
• 💣 Inflation will rise — but you won’t see it in CPI
• 🚀 The safe haven is Bitcoin, Ethereum, and on-chain assets

🎯 Final Forecast

Bitcoin = 250,000 Ether = 10,000 “Yachtzee, Motherfuckers!”

Not a warning. A forecast. Hayes isn’t betting against the system — he’s trading with the beat.

TL;DR

Arthur Hayes argues the U.S. is shifting toward fascist-style industrial capitalism — not ideologically, but structurally. As the state guarantees profits and ramps up credit creation to fund war and domestic production, crypto becomes the preferred inflation outlet. In this macro setup, Bitcoin hits 250K and Ethereum 10K, as stablecoins, political incentives, and asset rotation all push money into digital assets. Ignore the credit rhythm, and you miss the wave.