📉 Arthur Hayes Warns of Bitcoin Dip — But Still Sees 1M BTC by 2028

Arthur Hayes just dropped a bomb: Bitcoin could fall to 90K–95K short term — not because of crypto fundamentals, but because the U.S. Treasury is about to vacuum liquidity out of the system.

But don’t get it twisted: he still thinks 1 million BTC is coming by 2028.

🧯 Why Bitcoin Could Drop Soon: Blame the Treasury

The U.S. government is about to refill its Treasury General Account (TGA) — the big piggy bank at the Fed.

To do that, it’ll issue hundreds of billions in bonds, draining liquidity from the system.

• 🧾 Estimated impact: 364B–850B removed from markets
• 💸 Hayes expects a short-term liquidity crunch
• 📉 BTC could dip to 90K–95K, or hover near 100K

This mirrors what happened in 2023, when a similar TGA refill briefly tanked Bitcoin before a sharp recovery.

📊 Market Check: Strong… But Exposed

As of July 3, 2025:

• 💰 BTC = 109,362.67
• 🌐 Market cap = 2.17T
• 📊 Dominance = 64.34%
• 🔁 24h volume = 56.65B
• 📈 3-month gain = +31.58%

Bitcoin is still near all-time highs — but with Jerome Powell’s August speech looming, everyone’s watching the bond market like a hawk.

🔮 Long-Term? Hayes Still Sees 1M BTC

Arthur Hayes isn’t backing off his moonshot target:

“Bitcoin will hit 1 million before 2028.”

His reasoning:

• 🇺🇸 A second Trump presidency = bigger deficits
• 📉 Loss of trust in U.S. Treasuries
• 🌍 Geopolitical instability = capital flight
• 🔐 Investors seek hard, decentralized assets

Hayes believes that BTC isn’t just a hedge — it’s the exit ramp from a collapsing fiat system.

🕵️‍♂️ What to Watch Next

Hayes’ call isn’t just about vibes — it’s macro-driven.

Key triggers:

• 📅 Fed policy updates this August
• 🏦 Treasury bond auctions
• 💡 Bitcoin’s reaction to liquidity shifts
• 🧠 Institutional positioning around 100K zone

Short-term turbulence? Likely. Long-term narrative? Still intact. Hayes says: buy the dip if you believe the system is broken.

⚡ TL;DR

• 📉 Arthur Hayes predicts a Bitcoin dip to 90K–95K
• 🏦 Reason: U.S. Treasury to drain liquidity by refilling its TGA
• 📊 BTC is still strong at 109K, but macro pressures are real
• 🔮 Long-term target = 1 million by 2028, driven by geopolitics + broken trust in fiat
• 👀 Next big signal = Jerome Powell’s August policy speech

Bitcoin may bleed short-term — but Hayes says it’s still the best bet before the storm hits full force.