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Bitcoin Nears Death Cross as Analysts Predict Possible Relief Rally

Sat Nov 15 2025

Bitcoin approaches a death cross as the 50-day MA nears a crossover below the 200-day MA. Analyst Colin Talks Crypto forecasts a possible bounce but warns the trend is still uncertain.

⚠️ Bitcoin Faces Imminent Death Cross — Bounce Incoming or Just a Trap?

Analyst Colin Talks Crypto says BTC may see a short-term rally — but warns it’s unclear whether this marks a new uptrend or just relief before deeper downside.

Bitcoin is entering one of the most technically sensitive phases of the cycle. The 50-day moving average is about to cross below the 200-day moving average — the infamous death cross — a pattern that often appears near market bottoms but doesn’t guarantee a real recovery. At the same time, BTC is reacting from the lower band of a long-term megaphone formation, giving analysts hope for a relief rally.

According to market watcher Colin Talks Crypto, the next few days will determine whether Bitcoin gears up for a short-term bounce or slips deeper into a weak, cascading structure.

🔎 Quick Facts

⚠️ Death cross expected within 24 hours (50D MA crossing below 200D MA)
📉 BTC trading near the lower megaphone support band
📊 Gold correlation suggests BTC may be due for a bounce
💱 BTC–M2 correlation weakening, similar to past cycle peaks
🧭 Colin’s allocation: 96% Bitcoin
⏳ Possible scenarios: relief rally now or shallow decline into early 2026

📉 Death Cross Incoming — What It Really Means

The death cross — the 50-day moving average falling below the 200-day MA — is one of crypto’s most dramatic indicators. But historically, it has often happened near market bottoms, right before strong bounces.

The question isn’t whether a bounce happens — but whether it sticks.

Colin warns that this cross might trigger a short-term rally but says it’s too early to call a new macro uptrend.

📐 The Megaphone Pattern: BTC Holding the Line

Bitcoin recently tapped the lower support band of a megaphone formation that traders have followed closely throughout the cycle. Colin highlights this level as critical support:

“A break below the lower band could shift the weak outlook into outright negative territory.”

For now, BTC is holding — which supports the case for a relief bounce.

🟡 Gold’s Rally: A Leading Indicator for Bitcoin

Gold’s recent breakout may be signaling what’s next for BTC. Colin adjusts gold’s trend with an ~80-day lead, showing that Bitcoin has now arrived at levels where gold previously moved upward.

When combined with the megaphone structure and imminent death cross, this correlation strengthens the case for a near-term bounce.

📉 BTC vs Global M2 — Don’t Expect a Catch-Up

Colin also pushes back on narratives claiming Bitcoin will “catch up to global M2 money supply,” pointing out that BTC–M2 correlation has been weakening for months.

This divergence also appeared in previous cycle peaks — making M2-driven predictions unreliable.

📊 Colin’s Market Outlook — Three Key Takeaways

Short-term bounce is possible, but long-term confirmation is unclear.
Alternative scenario: a mini-bear phase or shallow decline into early 2026.
Altcoins remain risky — Colin stays “96% Bitcoin” due to potential underperformance.

He notes the absence of the typical late-cycle ingredients — excessive enthusiasm, speculation, and inflation pressure — suggesting a slower, cascading market structure rather than a blow-off top.