📉 Bitcoin Drops to $84K — But a Top On-Chain Analyst Says a $350K Blow-Off Top Is Still in Play

BTC is bleeding, traders are panicking… and yet one long-term model is screaming: “The bull run isn’t done.”

Bitcoin is battling heavy selling pressure, extending a multi-week correction that’s dragged the entire crypto market lower. Over the past week alone, BTC fell another 10%, briefly touching $80,800 before a mild rebound. The asset now sits 32.79% below its all-time high, with sentiment leaning heavily toward caution and distribution. 😬

But not everyone thinks the party is over. According to leading on-chain analyst Gert Van Lagen, Bitcoin may still be following a long-term pattern that points toward a monstrous rally — potentially as high as $350,000 to $400,000. 🚀🔥

📈 The Halving Blueprint: A 15-Year Pattern

In a detailed breakdown posted on X, Van Lagen analyzed Bitcoin’s entire price history using a logarithmic regression channel plotted against block height, not calendar time. This removes the emotional noise of days and months — and shows BTC’s movement as a clean, structural pattern.

The pattern? A three-step dance that has repeated every single cycle since 2009:

• 1️⃣ Bitcoin breaks above the midline of the long-term channel
• 2️⃣ Price accelerates into a blow-off top at the upper trend line
• 3️⃣ A sharp reversal marks the start of the true bear market

This played out in 2013, 2017, and 2021 — all ending with massive spikes into the upper boundary (the orange peaks in Van Lagen’s chart).

📍 Where Bitcoin Is Now: Sitting Below the Midline

Today, BTC is trading just under the channel midline — and historically, that’s the exact staging zone before Bitcoin enters the fastest, most aggressive phase of its bull market. According to Van Lagen, that means one thing: There’s still huge upside left. 💥

🔁 The Three Midline Rejections

This cycle has included an unusual technical twist: Bitcoin has now been rejected from the midline three times, each drop landing exactly on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level — and bouncing.

Van Lagen sees this as Bitcoin’s “coiled spring” moment: BTC is once again sitting on the 0.382 line — historically the final reload zone before a major breakout.

🚀 The Bullish Target: $350K–$400K

If Bitcoin follows the same post-halving structure it has respected for 15 years, the next major move would send it straight toward the upper boundary of the regression channel. That level? $350,000 to $400,000. Yes, really. 🤯

And here’s the key point: A true bear market has NEVER started before Bitcoin hits the upper boundary.

📉 When the Bear Market Actually Starts

According to the model, the sequence is always:

• 🔥 Blow-off top → cycle peak
• 📉 Bitcoin collapses back to the 210,000-block SMA
• 🧩 This SMA aligns with the lower trend line of the long-term regression channel

Right now, Van Lagen says the key moving averages sit at:

• 🔴 Red MA: $65,000
• ⚫ Black MA: $55,000

These are his projected “bear market landing zones” — but only after the blow-off top.

📊 Market Check: BTC at $84,300

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $84,300 after a 2.36% daily decline. Over the last 30 days, BTC has dropped 21.96%, hammering sentiment across the market.

Volatility is expected to stay elevated — but models like Van Lagen’s continue to spark debate: Is this drawdown the start of a new crypto winter? Or just the calm before Bitcoin’s biggest surge?

“After every halving, Bitcoin has broken above the channel midline before retesting the lower trend line. Every midline break has ended in a blow-off top around the upper trend line — about $350K to $400K this cycle.” — Gert Van Lagen

⚠️ TL;DR

Bitcoin is down bad — but one long-term regression model says the real bull run hasn’t even started. BTC is sitting right below the midline that has historically preceded explosive upside. If the pattern repeats, Bitcoin could hit $350K–$400K before any true bear market begins. Crypto winter? Maybe not yet. ❄️➡️🔥