Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Enters Bottom Zone, Signaling Market Reset
🧭 Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Signals Market Reset — Not Collapse
On-chain data hints that Bitcoin’s correction may already be nearing its end. The crowd sees fear; the charts see opportunity.
⚡ Quick Facts
- 📉 Metric in Focus: Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV)
- 🧮 Current Range: 1.8–2.0 — historically bottom territory
- 💡 Key Insight: Market exhaustion > capitulation
- 🌍 Macro Driver: Global liquidity contraction
- 🧠 Analysts: BitBull, Daan Crypto Trades
🧩 The MVRV Reset — A Historical Echo
Bitcoin’s recent pullback pushed its MVRV ratio into the 1.8–2.0 zone, a range historically tied to major cycle bottoms — June 2021, November 2022, and April 2025.
The MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin’s market value to what investors actually paid for their coins. When it hovers near 2, it means most holders are sitting near break-even — the market’s emotional state shifts from greed to conviction.
Crypto analyst BitBull put it bluntly:
“Every time sentiment turns into hopelessness, on-chain data shows exhaustion, not collapse.”
This pattern — liquidation washouts, emotional fatigue, and low profit margins — usually marks the end of pain, not the start of panic.
💧 Liquidity: The Real Puppet Master
While traders obsess over interest rates, liquidity is the true lifeblood of Bitcoin’s price.
According to Daan Crypto Trades, a veteran investor and macro analyst, Bitcoin’s momentum moves in sync with global liquidity flows, not just Fed policy.
“Rates matter less than liquidity expansion. When money flows, Bitcoin rallies — it’s that simple.”
Right now, liquidity expansion has paused — global dollar supply is contracting — which explains the temporary stall in Bitcoin’s rally. Once liquidity starts expanding again, BTC historically snaps back fast, often leading risk assets into recovery before equities even move.
📊 Market Compression, Not Capitulation
The current setup is what on-chain analysts call a compression phase — where weak hands exit and long-term holders quietly accumulate.
On-chain indicators confirm:
- Long-term holders aren’t selling.
- Exchange balances remain near multi-year lows.
- Realized profits have normalized to neutral territory.
This points to a clean market, not an overheated one.
Historically, when MVRV resets and liquidity recovers, Bitcoin enters early-stage expansion, leading to new macro highs within 3–6 months.
🪙 What It Means for Investors
For long-term holders, this is the accumulation zone — high uncertainty, low exuberance, and asymmetric upside.
Short-term, volatility will persist as macro liquidity remains tight, but on-chain data screams: 🩸 “The weak hands are gone.” 🔥 “The builders and believers are back.”
As one analyst summed it up:
“You don’t buy when it feels safe — you buy when the data says it’s clean.”
🧩 TL;DR
Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio (1.8–2.0) is flashing the same signals seen at past macro bottoms. Liquidity is tight, sentiment is fearful, but on-chain exhaustion hints at recovery. This isn’t a crash — it’s the calm before the next expansion.
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