300K BTC? PlanB Says Yes, Market Says "LOL"

The OG stock-to-flow analyst is back — and doubling down. While the crowd doubts, PlanB’s calling a 300,000 Bitcoin by 2026. Too bold or just early?

📊 Quick Hits

• 📈 300,000 — PlanB’s BTC forecast by end of 2026
• 🧠 Based on stock-to-flow (S2F) scarcity model
• 💸 BTC now: 114,150
• 📊 Survey: 60% of traders don’t believe BTC will hit 300K soon
• 🔮 Alternative forecasts: 170K (Scaramucci), 1M (Cathie Wood), 10M (Saylor)
• 📉 Near-term forecast (Aug '25): 112K avg
• ⏳ Long-term forecast (Dec '26): 194K–230K range by mainstream models

📉 Scarcity = Value: PlanB's 300K Thesis

PlanB isn’t just any crypto YouTuber — he’s the OG quant behind the stock-to-flow model, which treats Bitcoin like digital gold with a programmed scarcity.

His S2F model tracks the ratio of existing BTC to new issuance. In this framework, scarcity = price propulsion. And post-halving? Scarcity just kicked into fifth gear.

“We’re looking at a realistic floor of 250K, and possibly 1M. But 300K by 2026? That’s the most balanced take,” — PlanB to his 216K subscribers

He also points to the realized price (a metric based on actual on-chain coin movement), which shows BTC trading above all major cohort bands — classic bull-market behavior.

📉 Market Shrugs, Models Say "Maybe"

Not everyone’s buying it.

• August 2025 predictions:  • Range: 109K–114.8K  • Avg: 112K
• September 2025:  • Tightens to 111K–112.4K
• December 2026:  • 194K base case, highs possible to 225K+

PlanB’s 300K? Still the outlier. But history shows he’s been early before — and sometimes, that’s the same as being right.

🧠 Big Names, Big Numbers

Some other industry titans throwing out their moon math:

• 🎩 Anthony Scaramucci (SkyBridge Capital):  BTC to 170K within 12 months
• 💎 Cathie Wood (Ark Invest):  BTC to 1M in 5 years
• 🧱 Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy):  BTC = 10M long-term, if institutions play ball
• 🖥️ Digital Coin Price:  BTC to 119.8K by mid-Aug ‘25, rising to 210K–230K by late 2025

So, PlanB isn’t alone — just louder.

🎯 Should You Bet on It?

Let’s be real: models ≠ guarantees. But they do offer frameworks. PlanB’s S2F is one of the most famous — and infamous — in the game.

If you're:

• 🧠 A believer in programmed scarcity
• 📊 Watching on-chain data
• 🔁 Tracking halving cycles

...then 300K isn’t absurd. It’s just aggressive.

Still, volatility is king, and macro factors — interest rates, ETF flows, regulation — can flip the chart in a heartbeat.

🚀 Bigger Picture: 300K = New Normal?

Here’s the real question: if Bitcoin does hit 300K, what’s next?

• Will governments finally pivot from “ban crypto” to “back crypto”?
• Will Ethereum and other L1s explode in parallel?
• Will memecoins go full mania again?
• Will institutions finally hold BTC like they hold gold?

One thing’s clear: whether we moon or meander, the debate itself is now part of the price discovery process.

TL;DR

• 📊 PlanB’s back with a bold call: 300K BTC by 2026
• ⚙️ Rooted in the stock-to-flow scarcity model
• 🤷‍♂️ Most traders think that’s wishful thinking
• 🔮 Other big-name forecasts range from 170K to 10M
• 🧭 BTC remains in bull-market posture — for now
• 💡 If he's right, we’ll look back at 114K like it was pocket change