🧠📉 “I Failed”: Analyst Robert “El Profesor” Ruszała Apologizes After Bitcoin Prediction Breaks Down

A rare public apology from a crypto analyst sparks a wider conversation about transparency, strategy, and how fast markets can flip.

Polish crypto analyst Robert “El Profesor” Ruszała publicly apologized after his high-confidence Bitcoin forecast — known as “The Plan” — collapsed within weeks. He addressed the failure directly in a detailed post shared on X, marking one of the rare instances where a crypto analyst openly breaks down their own mistake.

Ruszała’s prediction leaned heavily on seasonal strength — including the classic Santa Rally — and a bullish technical structure that he believed would hold. But Bitcoin swiftly broke below key zones, invalidating the outlook and triggering his bearish scenario.

🗣️ A Rare Moment of Accountability

Analysts almost never admit failure publicly. But on 21 November, Ruszała posted an unusually candid message:

“I failed… I’m sorry to everyone who followed this plan. I know where I made the mistake.”

Instead of backlash, the response was overwhelmingly positive. Traders praised the transparency — noting that most analysts quietly delete bad calls and pretend they never happened.

📉 What Went Wrong? Ruszała Breaks It Down

In his follow-up explanation, Ruszała revealed that he always prepares two scenarios — bullish and bearish. Initially, the bullish structure held from $116,000 down to $94,700. But the deeper decline quickly activated the bearish case.

According to his breakdown, the main errors were:

• 🎅 Overestimating seasonal patterns like the Santa Rally
• 📈 Giving too much weight to fractals and specific moving averages
• 📉 Underestimating the chance of deeper downside

His message was clear: even well-constructed models can fail because the crypto market moves faster than expectations. Adaptation is critical.

💬 Community Response: Respect Over Outrage

Instead of criticism, the community highlighted the importance of what Ruszała did — analyzing and acknowledging his own error. Many traders said the openness set an example for other analysts, especially in an industry where accountability is rare.

🧩 Key Lessons for Crypto Traders

• 📉 Even strong technical plans can fail in volatile markets
• 🟦 Always build both bullish and bearish scenarios
• 🔁 Update and revise models quickly as conditions shift

Ruszała’s transparency reinforced a broader truth: Forecasts can be wrong — discipline and flexibility matter far more.

⚠️ TL;DR

Polish analyst Robert “El Profesor” Ruszała publicly apologized after his Bitcoin forecast “The Plan” was invalidated. BTC broke below key zones faster than expected, activating the bearish scenario. Ruszała explained his mistakes — overrelying on seasonal patterns, misranking indicators, and underestimating downside risk — sparking a rare positive discussion about transparency and adaptation in crypto analysis.