🐂 Eight of Ten Bitcoin Indicators Flash Bearish — But Is the Bull Run Really Over?

Bitcoin bounced back to 116K on September 12, but CryptoQuant says 8 out of 10 of its key indicators are flashing red. The Bull Score Index has sunk to the 20–30 range, signaling fading momentum. Yet, with altcoins rallying and macro liquidity tailwinds on the horizon, many believe the final leg of this bull cycle could still be ahead.

⚡ Quick Hits

• 💰 BTC Price: 116,000 (+1.5% daily, −6.8% from ATH)
• 📊 CryptoQuant Bull Score: 8/10 bearish signals
• 📉 Bull Score Index: 20–30 (down from July highs)
• 📈 CBBI (CoinGlass): 74/100 (bull run 75% complete)
• 🪙 Altseason Index: highest level of 2025
• 🔄 Last time 8/10 bearish: April 2025 → BTC fell to 75K
• 🚀 Last time 8/10 bullish: July 2025 → BTC hit 122.8K ATH

📉 The Bearish Case

CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartun flagged that eight of ten core signals have turned negative:

• ❌ MVRV-Z score
• ❌ Profit/loss indexes
• ❌ Bull/bear cycle models
• ❌ Inter-exchange flows
• ❌ Network activity
• ❌ Stablecoin liquidity
• ❌ Trader profit margins
• ❌ Realized price metrics

Only two remain bullish: ✔️ Rising BTC demand since July ✔️ Technical resilience on charts

👉 The last time signals looked this bad (April 2025), Bitcoin corrected to 75K.

🪙 The Bullish Counterpoint

CoinGlass’s Bitcoin Bull Run Index (CBBI) still sits at 74/100, suggesting the market is about three-quarters through the cycle. Out of 13 tracked indicators, only the altcoin season index is hinting at a possible peak.

Analysts say the lack of euphoric sentiment — a hallmark of past cycle tops — means the true peak may still lie ahead.

🧠 Analysts’ Takes

Bearish short term:

“Bitcoin is lagging behind altcoins, equities, and gold. Net buying is slowing as crypto treasuries reduce activity. Investors are shifting defensive.” — Augustine Fan, SignalPlus

Bullish longer term:

“The rally looks stretched. Expect a local top in Q4 2025, then a final push in Q1 2026 as global liquidity recovers.” — Tony Edward, crypto podcaster

🔮 The Bigger Picture

Bitcoin sits in a tug-of-war:

• On-chain data: says momentum is cooling.
• Macro liquidity: points to a final euphoric leg before the cycle ends.
• Altcoins: are outperforming, suggesting rotation is already underway.

With BTC just 6.8% below ATH, the key test will come late 2025 into early 2026. If history rhymes, today’s consolidation may set up the last explosive rally before the bear market hits.

⚡ TL;DR

• Bitcoin’s short-term momentum looks shaky — 8/10 CryptoQuant signals are bearish.
• But CoinGlass’s Bull Run Index suggests we’re only 75% through the cycle.
• Expect short-term chop, possible Q4 2025 local top, then a final Q1 2026 blow-off rally if liquidity floods back.