📉 Monthly MACD Goes Red: A Cycle-Defining Signal

Bitcoin’s monthly MACD histogram just flipped negative — the first red bar below zero in the current cycle. Historically, this is not the kind of signal bulls want to see.

Previous flips into the red in 2014, 2018, and 2022 all preceded long, grinding downtrends across the crypto market.

• 2014: BTC fell into a multi-year bear phase.
• 2018: Market collapsed after the ICO bust.
• 2022: BTC tumbled from near highs to below $20K.

The pattern isn’t guaranteed, but the track record demands respect — especially with Bitcoin struggling to hold above $84,500.

“Momentum has shifted decisively away from bulls.” — ATH.LIVE analysts

🧨 Ethereum Confirms a Death Cross

While Bitcoin grapples with a macro-level trend shift, Ethereum has delivered its own warning: the 50-day SMA has crossed below the 200-day SMA.

In technical analysis, this “death cross” is a widely watched bearish pattern that often precedes further downside.

• The trend now favors sellers.
• Short-term bounces may be shallow.
• ETH may lag BTC until the moving averages realign.

📊 Why These Signals Matter

This is the first time in the current cycle that Bitcoin’s monthly momentum indicator has turned negative. Combined with Ethereum’s death cross, analysts see a strong technical case for caution.

• Weak ETF inflows suggest institutional enthusiasm is fading.
• The U.S. dollar remains surprisingly resilient.
• U.S. Treasury yields are still elevated, pulling liquidity away from risk assets.

Taken together, the technical and macro signals amplify one another — the kind of alignment markets often treat as meaningful.

📉 Key Levels to Watch for Bitcoin

BTC is hovering near $84,967 with major support at:

• $84,500
• $74,500
• $70,000

A break below $84,500 may trigger broader sell-offs — and if the $74,500 level fails, analysts warn that BTC could revisit the low-$70K range.

🌐 Macro Pressures Are Not Helping

The technical shifts are occurring alongside worsening macro sentiment:

• The U.S. dollar is firm even as rate cuts are expected.
• Yields remain elevated, drawing capital away from crypto.
• ETF data shows capital flowing out, not in.

These macro factors could accelerate downside or suppress recovery attempts.

🧠 ATH.LIVE Analyst Take

1. BTC’s Monthly MACD Is a Serious Warning

“Previous bearish crossovers on the monthly MACD have not been mild — they’ve preceded long periods of downside or consolidation.”

2. ETH Death Cross Confirms Bearish Bias

“Even if ETH bounces, the death cross remains in place until the moving averages reverse — meaning upside may be limited.”

3. Risk/Reward Favors Bears for Now

“Not predicting a crash, but probability favors a correction rather than fresh highs.”

🔮 What’s Next?

Analysts emphasize that while these signals don’t guarantee a crash, they mark the highest-risk environment in months.

• Bulls should stay cautious.
• Bears have momentum.
• Volatility may increase around macro news, ETF flows, and key support levels.

Bitcoin may be shifting into a consolidation or correction phase — and Ethereum may follow with lagging strength.