Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio Flashes Bottom Signal — Accumulation Phase May Have Begun

A key on-chain metric just dipped below its 365-day average — and historically, that’s when smart money starts buying.

⚡ Quick Hits

• 📉 Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio fell below its 365-day SMA — a historical bottom signal
• 📊 CryptoQuant analyst ShayanMarkets says the move mirrors prior accumulation zones
• 🪙 Past MVRV dips have preceded 100%+ rallies within months
• 🧭 Current pattern suggests undervaluation and accumulation opportunity
• 🧠 Data from Glassnode confirms a strong correlation between MVRV lows and market recoveries

📉 The Signal Everyone’s Watching

Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio — one of the most respected on-chain indicators — has just fallen below its 365-day moving average.

Why it matters: Historically, this has marked cyclical market bottoms and prime accumulation zones — the moments long-term investors later describe as “the ones that got away.”

On October 22, CryptoQuant analyst ShayanMarkets flagged the dip, calling it a “potential bottom signal” for Bitcoin’s current cycle.

“The MVRV ratio has historically indicated potential market bottoms,” said Shayan. “Investors should remain cautious yet optimistic about current valuations.”

In other words, this might be Bitcoin quietly whispering: “I’m cheap again.”

🧮 Why MVRV Matters

The MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin’s current market value to its realized value — the average cost basis of all coins on-chain. When MVRV falls below 1, it signals that the market is, on average, underwater — a condition often preceding reversals.

Now, with the 365-day moving average breached, analysts are reading this as a classic reaccumulation setup.

• In June 2022, a similar dip preceded a 100% rally within six months.
• Across previous cycles, MVRV breakdowns aligned with capitulation events — then slow, steady recoveries.

The metric doesn’t call tops. It whispers bottoms.

💡 What History Says

Every major cycle tells the same story:

• MVRV dips below the yearly average → traders capitulate → smart money accumulates.
• Months later, Bitcoin rallies, often doubling or tripling from those same “fear zones.”

If that rhythm repeats, Bitcoin could be entering a stealth accumulation phase right now — the kind that rewards conviction, not comfort.

“These are the moments long-term investors quietly love,” one on-chain strategist told ATH.live. “The crowd calls it boring; history calls it early.”

🧠 Macro Context — The Wild Card

Of course, nothing happens in a vacuum. Macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory moves still loom large: interest rates, ETF approvals, and global liquidity flows could all distort the signal.

Still, Glassnode data backs up the MVRV case — showing that every major bottom in the past decade coincided with sub-average MVRV readings.

As a pattern, it’s hard to ignore. As a trade, it’s a test of patience.

📈 Bigger Picture

Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio dropping below the 365-day SMA isn’t doom — it’s data. It suggests undervaluation, capitulation, and opportunity — three words that define early-stage accumulation.

If history rhymes, this could be the quiet foundation for the next leg up — one built on fatigue, not frenzy.

The bulls might be asleep, but the smart money? It’s watching MVRV.

TL;DR

• 📊 MVRV ratio dips below 365-day average — historical bottom indicator
• 💰 June 2022 pattern repeated — last time, BTC doubled in months
• 🪙 Signals undervaluation and start of accumulation phase
• 🧠 Analysts urge cautious optimism amid macro uncertainty
• 📈 If history repeats, this setup could mark the beginning of the next upcycle