🟢 Bitcoin Flashes Rare Buy Signal — Last Seen at 49K and 74K

On-chain metrics just fired a signal we haven’t seen since Bitcoin’s 49K and 74K swing lows. With BTC at 111,382, data suggests a tactical buy window inside the longer-term bull trend.

⚡ Quick Hits

• 💰 Current BTC Price: 111,382
• 📉 Oversold Range: 108K–108.8K (STH-MVRV Bollinger threshold)
• 🧾 Previous Signals: 49K (Yen Carry Unwind), 74K (Tariff Tantrum)
• ⚖️ STH-SOPR: <1.0 → short-term holders selling at a loss
• 📈 Support Levels: 108.8K (STH cost basis), 101K (200-day MA)
• 🔄 Derivatives: 7 straight days of long liquidations

📊 What the Signal Means

On-chain analyst Frank (@FrankAFetter, Vibe Capital) says the STH-MVRV Bollinger oscillator has dipped into oversold territory:

• Short-term holders are now underwater.
• Leveraged longs have been flushed for seven days straight.
• Historically, this combo = local bottoms and relief squeezes.

Frank’s take:

“If we are in a bull market—and I believe we are—this is the kind of behavior that typically sets the stage for the next leg higher.”

🪙 On-Chain + Macro Context

• Short-term holders (STH): Selling at a loss → signal of capitulation.
• Derivatives: Long liquidations reset leverage → market less fragile.
• Macro: Gold just hit new highs, and Bitcoin often lags bullion before catching up.

👉 Translation: Risk is cleaner, upside catalysts remain.

🐂 Bullish Path

• Hold above 108.8K (STH cost basis) → triggers relief squeeze.
• Aggressive shorts could get caught → short squeeze fuel.
• Continuation of the broader bull market structure.

🐻 Bearish Path

• Drop below 108.8K → demand test at 101K (200-day MA).
• Break there risks a deeper flush before resuming uptrend.

🚨 Why It Matters

• Rare signal: Only flashed at 49K (carry trade unwind) and 74K (tariff shock). Both marked strong buy zones.
• Market is resetting leverage instead of topping out.
• Macro tailwinds (gold ATH, liquidity expansion) align with a bullish continuation.

✍️ TL;DR

Bitcoin just hit a rare on-chain buy signal not seen since 49K and 74K. Short-term holders are capitulating, longs have been flushed, and gold’s breakout hints at upside. If BTC holds above 108.8K, expect a relief squeeze back into bull mode. If not, 101K (200-day MA) is the line to watch.