🔴 Red September? Bitcoin Flirts With 100K Breakdown After ETF Bleed

Bitcoin’s hot streak just hit a wall. August ended with a -6.5% dip, 751M in ETF outflows, and a chart screaming “bearish.” Now September—the month BTC historically loves to wreck traders—has the 100K floor in sight.

⚡ Quick Hits

• 📉 Price: 108,062 (BTC/USD)
• 🔻 August decline: -6.5% (first red month in 5)
• 💸 ETF outflows: 751M (SoSoValue)
• 🧱 Supports: 105,240 (Fib), 101,366 (200-day SMA), 100,000 (psych floor)
• 📊 Resistances: 110,756 (Ichimoku), 113,510 (lower high), 115,938 (50-day SMA)
• 🗓️ Seasonality: 8 red Septembers out of last 12 (Coinglass)

🩸 Why the Drop Stings

August wasn’t just a pullback—it was a breakdown. BTC sliced through:

• Ichimoku cloud
• 50-day and 100-day SMAs
• Key horizontals at 111,965 (May high) + 109,364 (Dec high)

📉 Indicators confirm it:

• GMMA: short EMAs slipped under long EMAs → bearish momentum.
• MACD histogram: flipped red on weekly → bullish → bearish transition.

The roadmap? A magnet test of the 200-day SMA at 101,366, with 100K looming like a final boss.

📉 Red September: The Curse Is Real

Since 2013, September has been Bitcoin’s worst calendar month:

• Avg return: -3.49%
• 8 out of last 12 closed red

The danger: self-fulfilling prophecy. Traders expect weakness → they sell → weakness deepens. Layer that on ETF outflows and bearish techs, and you get a “double red” setup.

🛡️ Bullish Hopes

To break the curse, bulls need to:

• Reclaim 113,510 (Aug 28 lower high)
• Push volume above resistance at 115,938 (50-day SMA)

Until then? Every bounce = “exit liquidity.”

🚨 Why It Matters

This isn’t just about charts—it’s about confidence.

• ETFs bleeding capital = institutions less hungry for BTC.
• Macro headwinds (inflation + trade costs) stack pressure.
• 100K isn’t just psychological—it’s where retail panic and institutional buy-the-dip could collide.

If BTC holds 100K, bulls survive to fight October (a historically strong rebound month). If not? Eyes shift to 90K–95K support zones.

✍️ TL;DR

Bitcoin just dropped -6.5% in August, breaking key supports and piling on 751M ETF outflows. With Red September seasonality, 100K is the next big battleground. Bulls must reclaim 113.5K to flip sentiment—otherwise, September could deliver another bloody chapter in BTC history.