Bitcoin Treasury Firms Are Worth Less Than Their Coins

When your balance sheet outshines your stock price — you’ve got a Bitcoin problem. Treasury firms loaded with BTC are trading below the value of their own wallets, revealing the psychological cracks in the market’s faith.

⚡ Quick Hits

• 📉 Bitcoin treasury firms’ valuations fall below their BTC holdings
• 🪙 Semler Scientific (SMLR): 5,000+ BTC, shares at 80% of NAV
• 💰 KindlyMD (NAKA): $300M market cap vs. $631M BTC assets (0.5x ratio)
• 🔻 Strive (ASST): down 90% this month, trading at 50% of holdings
• 🧩 Analysts call it “sentiment over substance” — valuation driven by Bitcoin’s mood, not math

🧱 The Bitcoin Treasury Hangover

After a wave of Bitcoin accumulation in 2023–2024, a new problem has emerged: treasury firms are now worth less than the Bitcoin they hold.

From Semler Scientific to KindlyMD, Strive, and Metaplanet, markets have turned skeptical — punishing any company whose business model is little more than “we own Bitcoin.”

The result:

• Semler Scientific (SMLR) — 5,000+ BTC, shares stuck near $24, roughly 80% of its portfolio value.
• KindlyMD (NAKA) — valued at $300M despite $631M in BTC holdings.
• Strive (ASST) — down 90% in a month, trading at half the value of its 5,885 BTC stash.

Even diversified players like Capital B, H100 Group, and Smarter Web Company show the same pattern: Bitcoin-rich, value-poor.

🧩 The mNAV Ratio Reality

The metric at the center of the storm is mNAV — market capitalization divided by net asset value (in this case, Bitcoin holdings).

For most Bitcoin treasury firms, mNAV < 1.0 means one thing: Investors don’t trust the model.

When Bitcoin was rallying, holding BTC on your balance sheet looked visionary. Now, it looks like dead weight — especially when volatility cuts deeper than earnings reports.

“The market’s discounting Bitcoin treasuries because they’ve become single-asset stories. No diversification, no yield, no floor,” said one analyst tracking corporate BTC disclosures.

💣 Buybacks, Borrowing, and the MicroStrategy Mirage

Some firms are fighting back — literally buying their own stock to prove they’re undervalued.

• Empery Digital launched a $100M credit-backed buyback, but its shares still fell 60% YTD.
• Sequans Communications repurchased 10% of its ADS float, yet saw no recovery.

Meanwhile, others are copying Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR) playbook — using a fraction of their BTC for low-yield trading or leveraged financing.

MSTR still trades at a 1.39x premium to its Bitcoin holdings, but that margin is shrinking fast. Even the king of Bitcoin balance sheets is learning that faith premiums are fragile.

🧠 Why It Matters

Bitcoin treasury firms were once the public market’s easiest way to gain BTC exposure without touching a wallet. Now they’re a case study in correlation risk.

When Bitcoin drops, these companies don’t just lose value — they lose identity.

Their stocks move tick-for-tick with BTC, but without the same liquidity or upside narrative. It’s Bitcoin exposure without Bitcoin’s autonomy.

The result? A class of firms whose fortunes rise and fall on market psychology more than on financial performance.

🧭 Bigger Picture

The decline of Bitcoin treasury firms isn’t just a bear-market side effect — it’s a reality check.

• Investors no longer reward companies just for holding coins.
• Fundamentals now matter: cash flow, diversification, and governance.
• Bitcoin exposure alone no longer sells stock — it sells risk.

Still, the opportunity remains. If BTC rebounds and sentiment flips, these firms could rally hard, trading back to parity or even premium.

Until then, the message is clear: Owning Bitcoin isn’t enough — you have to outperform it.

TL;DR

• 🪙 Bitcoin treasury firms now trade below the value of their BTC
• 📉 mNAV ratios under 1.0 show deep investor distrust
• 💣 Buyback efforts and MicroStrategy-style tactics aren’t restoring confidence
• 💼 Correlation to BTC is total — but upside is not
• 🧠 In 2025, the market’s new mantra: Hold Bitcoin, not Bitcoin companies