🚀 Analyst Says Bitwise’s 1.3M Bitcoin Forecast Is “Too Conservative”

Bitwise predicts Bitcoin will hit 1.3 million by 2035. Swyftx’s Pav Hundal says that’s underselling BTC’s potential. With Bitcoin trading at 115,381 today, the debate highlights the tension between historical growth rates, institutional adoption, and whether Bitcoin’s infamous four-year cycle is fading.

📊 Quick Hits

• 💰 Current BTC price: 115,381
• 📈 Bitwise 2035 forecast: 1.3M (AU2M)
• 📊 Bitwise CAGR assumption: 28.3% annually
• ⏳ Historical 10-year growth: 82.5% average annual
• 🔮 Analyst take: Pav Hundal calls forecast “conservative”

📉 Is 28% Growth Underselling Bitcoin?

Bitwise’s projection assumes 28.3% annual growth — a sharp slowdown from Bitcoin’s 82.5% 10-year average.

Hundal’s view:

“I think that’s pretty conservative.”

He notes that while BTC’s growth rate has naturally slowed over time, institutional adoption, ETFs, and global monetary shifts could sustain stronger gains than Bitwise’s cautious estimate.

⏳ The Four-Year Cycle Debate

Bitcoin’s infamous halving-driven four-year cycle has long defined its boom-and-bust rhythm.

• Bitwise: Cycles may fade as institutional investors dampen volatility.
• Hundal: Still relevant — “The four-year cycle thing’s always been a bit of a weird one,” but BTC may still peak in Q4 2025, giving room for altcoin rallies.

If the cycle holds, we could see a blow-off top before 2026 — and Bitwise’s 2035 price target may end up looking cautious.

🌍 Bigger Picture

Forecasting Bitcoin’s 2035 value is less science, more art:

• Institutional adoption: ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sovereign funds are scaling in.
• Macro backdrop: Debt, de-dollarization, and global inflation risks could fuel demand.
• Cycles: Even if halving cycles lose dominance, network effects and scarcity remain tailwinds.

The takeaway: Bitwise’s 1.3M call is bullish on paper, but history suggests Bitcoin could overshoot under favorable conditions.

⚡ TL;DR

• Bitwise: Bitcoin to 1.3M by 2035 (+28.3% CAGR).
• Hundal: That’s too cautious — historical growth suggests much higher is possible.
• Four-year cycle may be evolving but still relevant.
• If institutions keep buying, Bitwise’s “bullish” forecast could actually be the floor.