📉 Ethereum Signals a Possible Bottom — But Liquidations Keep the Market Fragile

NUPL hits its lowest level since July, suggesting trader exhaustion — yet heavy long-liquidation pressure is blocking any real rebound.

Ethereum’s Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) has fallen to 0.23, its weakest reading since July. Normally, such a low profit-taking environment creates conditions for a bottom — but ETH is still struggling to recover, showing that macro structure and liquidation flows remain dominant.

🔎 Quick Facts

• 📉 NUPL: 0.23 — lowest since July, but above June’s 0.17 bottom
• 💥 Longs on Gate.io: $1.05B, clustered near $3,050
• 📊 Shorts: $2.36B — adding pressure on rebounds
• 📉 Critical support: $3,053
• 📈 Recovery signals: reclaim $3,653 → break $3,795

📉 Why Low NUPL Isn’t Enough Yet

A NUPL value of 0.23 means most ETH holders are barely in profit — a setup that typically reduces selling pressure and precedes rebounds. But there’s a catch: the June low was 0.17, and that level triggered a 106% ETH rally afterward.

Translation: the market can still weaken before it finds a true bottom.

💥 Long-Liquidation Pressure Is the Real Problem

Derivatives data explains why ETH can’t bounce despite low incentive to sell.

• 🔥 $1.05B in long positions piled around $3,050
• 🐻 $2.36B in shorts waiting to push price lower

This creates a trap:

• Small drops near $3,050 → force long liquidations
• Forced selling → triggers more downside
• Downside → blocks any chance of a clean rebound

So even though NUPL says “bottoming,” liquidation dynamics say “not yet.”

📉 ETH Is Still Inside a Falling Channel

The key support is $3,053. A breakdown below this line opens the path toward a deeper decline — potentially pushing NUPL closer to 0.17, which historically aligns with major reversal zones.

📈 What ETH Must Reclaim to Flip Bullish

1️⃣ First Recovery Signal: $3,653

This level would show early strength and reduce liquidation risk.

2️⃣ Structural Flip: $3,795

Breaking this zone shifts market structure from bearish to neutral. It also pushes ETH to the upper boundary of the falling channel — where short positions may begin to unwind aggressively.

Clearing both levels would set the stage for a sharp rebound fueled by:

• 📉 short squeezes
• 📈 reduced liquidation pressure
• 📊 renewed spot demand

📚 Why It Matters

• 📉 NUPL is near historically bullish zones — but not at final capitulation levels
• 💥 Liquidation flows overpower on-chain signals in the short term
• 📈 Key reclaim levels determine if ETH stabilizes or dips toward its June-like setup
• 🧩 The market remains fragile but primed for opportunity once pressure eases

✅ TL;DR

• 📉 NUPL at 0.23 shows low incentive to sell.
• ⏳ But still above June’s 0.17 — room for more downside.
• 💥 Heavy long-liquidation pressure blocks recovery.
• 📉 Critical support: $3,053.
• 📈 Bullish reclaim levels: $3,653 → $3,795.
• 📊 Falling channel still intact; breakout needed for trend reversal.

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