The Black Swan Hasn’t Landed Yet — Il Capo Warns Bitcoin’s Real Crash Is Still Ahead

Bitcoin may be hovering above $100K, but crypto’s most infamous bear says the real pain hasn’t even started.

⚡ Quick Hits

• 🪙 Bitcoin price: ~$100,000 — post-crash stabilization
• ⚠️ Il Capo of Crypto: “This isn’t the black swan — it’s just the shadow”
• 📉 Projected bottom: $60K–$70K zone
• 💣 Trigger: Trump’s 100% tariff threat against China
• 🔻 Altcoins: facing historic capitulation
• 🌍 Macro risk: global liquidity tightening + rate pressure

🌪️ The Calm Before the Real Storm

After a brutal week that wiped billions off the crypto market, many traders rushed to call the bottom. But Il Capo of Crypto, one of the space’s most followed contrarians, isn’t buying it.

He believes Bitcoin’s recovery above $100,000 is nothing more than a dead-cat bounce before the real correction kicks in.

“This isn’t the black swan,” Il Capo warned. “It’s just the first shadow of what’s coming.”

According to him, the recent crash — triggered by Donald Trump’s tariff comments — exposed systemic fragility rather than exhaustion. The worst may be yet to come.

🩸 Altcoins Face Historic Capitulation

While Bitcoin’s correction made headlines, altcoins have quietly entered full-blown capitulation. Smaller tokens are down 60–90% from recent highs, with liquidity drying up across DEXs and exchanges.

Even large caps like Ethereum and Solana could fall further, says Il Capo. He argues the market hasn’t yet purged its excess leverage and speculative froth.

“These phases always end with complete resets,” he said. “Patience and discipline will decide who survives.”

In other words — the real capitulation hasn’t arrived yet.

🏦 Traditional Markets Show Cracks Too

Il Capo’s warning doesn’t stop at crypto. He points to global markets flashing the same stress signals: high interest rates, sticky inflation, and fragile liquidity conditions.

His comparison? The pre-2008 setup, where cracks appeared months before the full collapse.

“This is the macro version of a crypto black swan,” he explained. “The reset has to happen before confidence can rebuild.”

Stocks, bonds, and even commodities are showing signs of exhaustion — a backdrop that could accelerate risk-off sentiment and drag digital assets deeper into correction territory.

🕰️ Weekend Lull, Weekday Risk

As the weekend brings calm to markets, Il Capo warns traders not to confuse quiet charts with safety.

“Sideways movement doesn’t mean stability,” he said. “It just means the storm hasn’t hit yet.”

He expects volatility to reignite next week as global markets reopen — especially if new macro headlines, rate surprises, or liquidity shifts catch traders off guard.

Bitcoin’s short-term range may hold between $100K and $106K, but Il Capo maintains his bearish thesis: the true bottom lies between $60K and $70K — where real capitulation, not speculation, begins.

🧠 Bigger Picture: Bearish Realism vs. Market Euphoria

Il Capo’s views often polarize the crypto community, but his track record of early warnings has made him impossible to ignore. His “black swan not yet landed” thesis reflects a growing tension in markets — between regulatory optimism and macro fragility.

While traders cheer institutional inflows and ETF growth, the macro cycle still dictates liquidity. And when liquidity contracts, even the strongest narratives bend.

TL;DR

• 🪙 Bitcoin holds $100K, but Il Capo says deeper pain ahead
• ⚠️ Predicts $60K–$70K bottom before full reset
• 💣 Altcoins face historic capitulation, ETH/SOL could drop further
• 🌍 Macro stress mirrors 2008-style pre-crisis tension
• 🕰️ Weekend calm = “eye of the storm,” not recovery
• 🧠 The real black swan hasn’t landed — yet