Harvard’s 100 Bitcoin Blunder: Rogoff Eats His Words at 59K

From “Bitcoin’s going to 100” to watching it flirt with 60K — Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff admits he miscalculated.

⚡ Quick Hits

• 🎓 Who: Kenneth Rogoff — Harvard economist, ex-IMF Chief
• 📉 2018 call: “100 more likely than 100K”
• 💰 BTC price then: 11,200 (Jan 2018)
• 🚀 BTC price now (2025): 59,000
• 🌍 Underground economy: 20T (Rogoff says it propped up Bitcoin)
• 📊 Illicit use of BTC: from 20% (2016) → <1% today

📉 What He Said Back Then

In 2018, Rogoff went on CNBC’s Squawk Box and dropped this line:

“Bitcoin will be worth a tiny fraction of what it is now… 100 is more likely than 100,000.”

He saw governments crushing crypto under regulation, leaving Bitcoin only for money launderers and tax dodgers.

Context:

• Japan had just legalized BTC.
• South Korea forced real-name accounts.
• Hacks were headline news (remember Coincheck’s 530M blowout).

Rogoff bet regulators would step in hard. Spoiler: they didn’t.

⏩ Fast Forward to 2025

Now Rogoff admits he missed three key things:

1. Regulation lagged. The U.S. dragged its feet; rules came piecemeal, not as a knockout blow.
2. Shadow demand stayed strong. A 20T underground economy gave Bitcoin a price floor.
3. Regulators had skin in the game. He says he was shocked at how many officials hold crypto “without consequence.”

He packaged all this self-reflection into his new book: Our Dollar, Your Problem.

🏛️ Regulation Then vs. Now

• 2018: Chaos — Japan embraces BTC, South Korea restricts, U.S. dithers, China bans.
• 2025: U.S. tightens reporting & custody, EU’s MiCA goes live, Hong Kong = pro-crypto, China still anti.

The takeaway? Bitcoin thrives in regulatory gaps — and those gaps are everywhere.

📢 Industry Clapback

While Rogoff blames illicit demand, on-chain analytics tell a different story:

• Blockchain Intelligence Group said by 2016 that illegal use was shrinking.
• By 2025, Chainalysis data shows illicit transactions = <1% of BTC activity.

Bitcoin outgrew its Silk Road stigma — now it’s Wall Street’s problem child.

🌍 Bigger Picture

Rogoff’s 100 prediction wasn’t just wrong, it was the wrong lens.

• Governments didn’t kill Bitcoin → they learned to tax it.
• Bitcoin didn’t stay a criminal tool → it became a geopolitical hedge.
• The 100 call? Now a meme in the same folder as “the internet is a fad.”

TL;DR

• Rogoff in 2018: BTC going to 100.
• Reality in 2025: BTC at 59K.
• He underestimated slow regulation, underground demand, and conflicted regulators.
• Illicit use is now tiny (<1%), but Bitcoin is bigger than ever.
• Lesson: Never bet against crypto’s ability to adapt.