Thai Banks Crack, Boomers Stack Gold, Degens Stack Bitcoin

Fitch sees bad loans creeping up. Thailand’s richest turn to gold. The next-gen hedges with crypto. Welcome to the safe-haven split.

⚡ Quick Hits

• 📉 Bad Loans Rising: Thai banks’ impaired loan ratio → 3.5% (2023) → 3.6% (2024) → 3.7% (Mar 2025)
• 🏦 Banks in Trouble: SCB X + Krungsri sit above 4% bad loans, negative outlook
• 💰 Credit Exposure: 87–90% tied to lending, market risk <3%
• 🪙 Gold Forecast: 58,000 baht/baht-weight by year-end, 60,000 if baht weakens
• ₿ Crypto Forecast: Bitcoin could hit 200K in 3–4 years (Binance TH)

🏦 Thai Banks Under Pressure

Fitch Ratings just dropped a red flag: Thailand’s six biggest banks — BBL, KTB, KBank, SCB X, Krungsri, and ttb — are bracing for more bad loans. Retail borrowers and SMEs never fully recovered from the pandemic, and the cracks are showing.

• SCB X + Krungsri: impaired loan ratios >4%, outlook negative
• KBank: exposed to fragile SMEs
• Bangkok Bank: better shape, thanks to diversification

Translation? Thai banking giants are looking vulnerable, with credit risk the ticking bomb.

🥇 Gold Still Shines for the Old Guard

At the Forbes Thailand Forum, all eyes turned to safe havens. Gold’s on fire: up 27% YTD and almost doubled in five years.

Kiradit Hirunyasiri of MTS Gold put it bluntly:

“Gold remains the must-have asset. It’s security. It’s stability.”

Forecast? 58,000 baht per baht-weight by Dec 2025, maybe 60,000 if the baht weakens.

This is Thailand’s love story with gold — and it’s not fading anytime soon.

₿ Crypto Steps Into the Spotlight

Meanwhile, the youth and risk-takers are choosing Bitcoin. Binance TH’s CEO Nirun Fuwattananukul calls it crypto’s “golden era.”

• Bitcoin has doubled in a year
• Could rally to 200,000 in 3–4 years
• Institutional adoption + Trump-era U.S. policy seen as fuel

Nirun’s mic-drop:

“Gold is the must-have security asset. Crypto is the must-have growth asset.”

🌏 Bigger Picture: Thailand Between Two Worlds

• Banks: Stuck with rising bad loans until at least 2026
• Gold: The eternal safe-haven, especially in times of crisis
• Crypto: The growth play, positioning Thailand as a Southeast Asian hub

The split is generational and philosophical: Boomers cling to gold, while Gen Z and crypto-native institutions are betting on Bitcoin.

TL;DR

• ⚠️ Thai banks face rising bad loans (Fitch warns: stress through 2026)
• 🥇 Gold forecast: 58,000–60,000 baht by year-end
• ₿ Bitcoin forecast: 200K within 3–4 years
• 👵 Boomers hedge with gold, 👶 degens hedge with BTC
• 🇹🇭 Thailand becomes a safe-haven battleground