📉 From Pain to Bounce: The Anatomy of the Correction

Bitcoin staged an aggressive 15% recovery last week after plunging to the deepest drawdown of the cycle — 35.9% from its all-time high. The rebound pushed BTC back to $93,116, but the 4.1% drop after the weekly open shows that seller fatigue is easing, not gone.

Bitfinex Alpha’s latest analysis suggests the market is nearing a local bottom — even if the final price floor hasn’t yet printed.

🔍 Capitulation Metrics Flash Classic Bottom Signals

Multiple indicators show that sellers may be exhausted:

• aSOPR fell below 1 — only the third time since early 2024. Mirrors major bottoms in:
  • August 2024
  • April 2025
• Realised losses surged to $403.4M/day — higher than previous bottom prints.
• Such extreme loss-taking historically marks the end of capitulation, not the beginning.

These align with on-chain cyclical low patterns observed across prior Bitcoin recoveries.

📉 Futures Market: Leverage Gets Wiped Clean

Derivatives data confirms a rare, healthy leverage flush:

• Total BTC open interest dropped from $94.12B → $59.17B.
• OI fell even as spot price rose — a key sign of short covering.
• No new speculative leverage entered the market.

This creates a structurally safer environment for BTC’s next phase — with fragility removed and volatility dampening.

🏛️ Macro Divergence: Consumers Slow, Corporates Spend

U.S. macro data shows a split economy:

• Consumers weaken: retail sales +0.2%, Confidence Index down to 88.7.
• Businesses accelerate: core capital goods orders +0.9% (AI & automation boom).
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow sees 3.9% annualized Q3 growth.

This mixed environment adds uncertainty to the Fed’s December decision — but none of it appears to threaten BTC’s bottoming process.

🏦 Institutions Buy the Dip

While retail panic-sold, institutions quietly expanded exposure:

• BlackRock increased IBIT holdings by 14% (now 2.39M shares).
• ARK Invest bought $93M+ across Coinbase, Circle, Block, and ARK’s own Bitcoin ETF.
• Texas made a $5M purchase into IBIT — the first U.S. state-level BTC reserve.

Institutional accumulation during capitulation phases historically anchors the price floor.

🧠 ATH.LIVE Analyst Take

“The combination of extreme deleveraging, realized losses, and initial institutional inflows points to a near-term bottom. Bitcoin is entering a consolidation phase where healthy accumulation can occur.”

1. Cleaner Market Structure

Forced liquidations of $19B+ in October removed systemic risk.

2. Stabilizing Price Action

Smaller candles and declining volatility show panic selling is fading.

3. Early Signs of a Reversal Base

Conditions now resemble previous cyclical lows where consolidation → recovery phases emerged.

🔮 Outlook: Consolidation Before the Next Phase

BTC is showing early signs of transitioning into a recovery base:

• Selling pressure is diminishing
• Market participants are stabilizing
• Institutional flows support the floor

ATH.LIVE analysts say this setup remains one of the strongest for long-term holders — with the caveat that renewed leverage or macro shocks could still cause volatility.